DE-PUTINIZATION OF RUSSIA

Russia Basics

General Facts on Russia.

Map and geographic facts about Russia.

'Russia’s northerly latitude means that it experiences a short growing season and has never been an agricultural superpower; the country usually has to import grain to feed its people.'

'Most of Russia’s population live in the European part of the country on the Eastern European Plain, also known as the Western Russian Plain, or the Russian Plain, the most agriculturally productive land in Russia.'

'As they were all subject to the Russian czars, people were taught the Russian language and were encouraged to convert to Russian Orthodoxy. Russification was not very successful, and the farther people were from Moscow the less likely they were to be Russified.'

'The oblasts and krais each have a governor appointed by the central government and a locally elected legislature. The governorship was an elected position in the 1990s, but President Vladimir Putin changed the structure to strengthen the power of the central state.'

A description of 9 regions making up Russia.

'This map showing population density in Russia gives an observer a rough estimate as to how unevenly the population is scattered across the country’s vast territory. '

'In essence, roughly 68 percent of people in Russia live in the European part of the country, which makes up only 20 percent of the whole territory.'

“Only one in five Russians live in the Asian part [of Russia], which comprises almost three-thirds of the country's territory. The regions of the Far North and the areas […] with severe climatic conditions, which account for about 70 percent of Russia’s territory, are especially poorly populated,” says Ekaterina Shcherbakova, Senior Researcher at the HSE Center for Demographic Research' ~ NIKOLAY SHEVCHENKO | JULY 07 2021

Population density map of Russia.

Maps illustrating various distributive attributes of Russia.

Ethnic groups about Russia. (Use Ctrl. '+' or '-' to adjust sizes.)

Ethnic pluralities of the Caucasus.

'Ethno-Linguistic Groups in the Caucasus':

Current events in Russia by Lansing Institute.

'The Moscow Times is Russia’s leading, independent English-language media outlet. From our Moscow newsroom, we provide readers across the world with breaking news, engaging stories and balanced journalism about the largest country on Earth.'

Russia's Demographic Decline

'Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, now an outspoken critic of Putin who lives in the United States, is skeptical of such pronouncements, accusing the Russian government of short-sightedness and of prioritizing political goals over demographic issues. "The main thing that has disenchanted me [in 2019] is the authorities' complacency about everything," Kasyanov tells RFE/RL. "The authorities do not want to change anything.... They all admit that we have big problems but no one can do anything about them because Putin cannot bring himself to change either domestic or foreign policy."

'Economist Aleksei Ulyanov, a member of the government's advisory panel on demographics and family policy, tells RFE/RL that Russia "is on the brink of extinction." He says the three main problems contributing to the demographic crisis, beyond the echoes of past demographic events, are abortion and the consumption of alcohol and tobacco. He is calling for direct or indirect restrictions on all three.'

'According to the World Health Organization, alcohol consumption, while still a problem in Russia, fell 43 percent between 2003 and 2016, a result it attributed primarily to government policies adopted after 2000.'

"Consulting, providing social, psychological, and economic help – that is the path toward gradually reducing the number of abortions," she concludes. "The number of abortions in this country is going down -- substantially. And we will continue along that path." ~ By Lilya Palveleva, Robert Coalson | January 12, 2020 14:22 GMT

“The problem is with men,” says Jeff Sahadeo, a professor at Carleton University’s Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies. Twenty-five per cent of all Russian men die before the age of 55, compared with 7 per cent in the United Kingdom, with alcohol the principal cause. A strengthening economy and improved social services alleviated the problem for several years. “But they never fixed the underlying problem,” said Prof. Sahadeo, “and now with COVID and Ukraine, things are quite grim.”

'Russia has a fertility rate of 1.5, slightly higher than Canada’s, which is 1.4. Both countries are well below the 2.1 children per woman needed to sustain a country’s population. Both countries rely on immigration to make up for lost births. In Russia’s case, most immigrants come from the Central Asian republics, such as Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. They are mostly Muslim and not ethnically Russian, which has increased tensions.'

'Mr. Putin has admitted the prospect of Russia’s population decline “haunts” him. According to data cited by Dominic Lawson in the Times of London, the death-to-birth ratio of ethnic Russians is as high as 2.5-to-1, and the overall Russian population is set decline to 115 million by 2050, from 145 million today.'

'Mr. Lawson believes Mr. Putin launched this war “based on a desire to reverse the demographic collapse of ethnic Russians, by annexing a nation thought by Putin to be full of Russians denied their true identity.” ~ JOHN IBBITSON | PUBLISHED MARCH 24, 2022

'In 1992, there were 225 abortions per 100 births, far exceeding the second highest rate—Romania's—which was 157 per 100 births. Abortion has become Russia's main method of birth control. Abortions are easily obtained free of charge at virtually all clinics, while contraceptives have been unavailable. Despite the procedure's prevalence, it frequently poses health risks for Russian women because it is often performed without proper hygiene or anesthesia. Abortion has also played a role in concentrating women's reproductive activity in early years. Women try to achieve their desired number of children at a young age and then abort subsequent pregnancies without fear of secondary sterility, which often results from frequent abortions. Only in recent years, as the availability of effective contraceptives has increased and the negative effects of abortion have been openly reported by the media, has the number of abortions begun to decline.'

'The trends of population growth and aging in Russia have been profoundly affected by catastrophic events, such as the two world wars, the civil war of 1917–1922, and famines in the early 1920s and '30s. These catastrophes have distorted the population pyramid—the typical age distribution and balance between male and female in the population (Figure 3). For example, huge losses during World War II have caused Russia to have the lowest overall male-to-female ratio in the world, especially among the elderly. The irregularities of this pyramid will continue to have an impact on the number of births and the rate of population growth and aging for several decades. This pattern affects such vital spheres as school enrollment, employment, and retirement.'

'When changes in the health of the population occurred—such as a decrease of infectious disease and a rise in "civilized" ills, such as alcoholism, smoking, traffic accidents, and pollution, in the mid-1960s—the health-care system failed to adapt appropriately. Excessive reliance on ideology led to ineffectual goals and an emphasis on activities that addressed neither the medical problems at hand, the level of national development, existing medical capabilities, nor public demand.' ~ by David M. Adamson, Julie DaVanzo

'The years 2013-2015 were the first in the history of post-Soviet Russia that witnessed natural population growth - of around by 0.2-0.3%. Before that, since 1991, the population had been in decline. In 2017, numbers dropped again: by 0.9%, TASS notes, and the trend is probably here to stay. “Russia’s population will continue to decrease,” demographer Sergey Zakharov believes.'

'Why is it happening? The reason is WWII - as far away as that traumatic event may seem. Between 1941-1945, the Soviet Union lost between 25 and 30 million people, according to various sources - the official assessment is 26.6 million, and this demographic “hole” is repeated in every generation (approximately, every 25 years): people who died in the early 1940s didn’t have babies, those unborn people resulted in the next demographic downfall in the late 1960s, then in the 1990s – and now Russia faces its third ‘echo’ of war.' ~ OLEG YEGOROV | NOV 27 2018

'The looming decline in the number of Russian births, the increase in emigration, and the rise in the number of births among non-Russians and especially Muslim groups will spark “inter-ethnic conflicts” in the Russian Federation that will have “a more devastating effect” than those in Europe, according to Nataliya Shishkina.'

'Whatever the government thinks, Shishkina says, getting the Russian birthrate to European levels is insufficient. Not only is Russia far larger and adjoining countries like China with enormous populations, but the shifting balance of ethnic groups is certain to lead to ethnic clashes and conflicts.' ~ Paul A. Goble | 2015/01/19 - 18:36

Russia's Rigged Political System

'Important elections for the Russian legislative body State Duma will be held in September, and President Vladimir Putin wants his party, United Russia to win it handsomely. But there is a problem. Putin's approval ratings are low, and he is not sure how the Russians will vote. At present, his party holds almost 75% of seats in the state duma, and any drop will be seen as a dent in Putin's power.'

'In Moscow, opinion polls show that people prefer opposition candidates, with United Russia being popular only among 20 percent. Slow economic growth, rise in inflation and the handling of coronavirus have angered many Russians and they may want to show their displeasure through the state Duma elections. But Russia, which is known for very low turnouts, could be an advantage for Putin as he could mobilize his supporters to come to vote.' ~ 'AKADialog'

'It’s far more than predicted and talked about that Russia has no real political system and is controlled from one center of power, which makes Russians derived from real politics.'

'By 2001, political pluralism and civic freedoms in Russia were under greater pressure than at any time since the Soviet era. A new law on political parties, passed by the State Duma in the fall, introduced restrictions on the role and structure of parties, limited the number of groups eligible to compete in elections, and gave the government authority over many aspects of party development that had previously been left to the electorate to decide. Early in the year, the former “party of power” Our Home Is Russia (NDR) formally dissolved, and most of its members joined the pro-presidential Unity Party. In the second half of the year, Unity effectively absorbed the Fatherland-All Russia bloc, once an independent force in the State Duma. Unity and the Communist Party, now Russia’s two largest and most powerful political groupings, have colluded to marginalize pro-democratic parties, chief among them Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS).'

'Russian opposition leaders from the Party of Progress and RPR-Parnas decided 17 April 2015 to run on a joint platform for the 2016 parliamentary elections. They hope to consolidate voters unhappy with Putin into one bloc. The opposition Party of Progress, led by anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny, and RPR-Parnas, co-founded by Mikhail Kasyanov and by murdered Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov, said in a joint statement that they were "ready to take responsibility for the future of the country.'

'Public access to the video-monitoring feeds is among the cuts that can be attributed to the raft of changes to electoral procedures in the past year. Electoral officials have defended the move as a cost-saving measure necessitated by the extension of the voting period to three days, a decision that was purportedly made to limit voters' exposure during the coronavirus pandemic but which itself has come under scrutiny as an expanded opportunity for vote fraud.'

'That has done little to assuage concerns among the opposition and experts, however. Suspicions continue to run high that there is ample room for vote fraud, particularly with the addition of electronic and mail-in voting that critics warn could be manipulated by the authorities.' ~ by Michael Scollon | September 12, 2021 12:25 GMT

'The EU stressed that Russia’s decision to involve residents of the non-government-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine in its elections runs counter to the spirit and objectives of the Minsk agreements.'

'The European Union regretted that Russia’s decision to severely restrict the size and format of an international OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission prevented its deployment. In addition, independent and reliable sources reported serious violations, including increased crackdown on opposition politicians, civil society organisations, and independent media outlets.' ~ Bohdan Marusyak | September 21, 2021

'The September elections for the Duma, the lower house of parliament, were marked by extensive irregularities, according to election observers and independent media. The official results left the ruling United Russia party with a substantial supermajority.'

'The formation of parties based on ethnicity or religion is not permitted by law. In practice, many regions inhabited by distinct ethnic groups are carefully monitored and controlled by federal authorities. Most republics in the restive North Caucasus area and some autonomous districts in energy-rich western Siberia have opted out of direct gubernatorial elections; instead, their legislatures choose a governor from candidates proposed by the president.'

'Russia’s authoritarian president dominates the political system, along with powerful allies in the security services and the business sector. These groups effectively control the output of the parliament, which is not freely elected. The 2020 constitutional amendments formalized the power of the president over the legislature and allow Putin to retain the presidency until 2036, demonstrating his ability to manipulate the system. In 2021, the parliament passed a series of bills designed to increase political centralization at the expense of regional autonomy. However, the federal authorities have limited ability to impose policy decisions in Chechnya, where Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has been granted unchecked power in exchange for violently suppressing dissent and keeping the republic within the Russian Federation.'

'Many analysts have argued that the political system is essentially a kleptocracy, a regime whose defining characteristic is the plunder of public wealth by ruling elites. Some of these elites openly work to fulfill President Putin’s policy aims and receive government contracts and protection from prosecution in return for their loyalty.'

'The government controls, directly or through state-owned companies and friendly business magnates, all of the national television networks and many radio and print outlets, as well as most of the media advertising market. A handful of independent outlets still operate, most of them online and some headquartered abroad. The few still based in the country struggle to maintain their independence from state interests.'

Repression In Russia

'That month, Russia’s Supreme Court ordered the closure of Memorial International, one of Russia’s most well-respected human rights organizations, on the grounds that it had repeatedly failed to meet the requirements of the foreign agents legislation.'

'Immigrants and ethnic minorities—particularly those who appear to be from the Caucasus or Central Asia—face governmental and societal discrimination and harassment. Constitutional amendments establish the primacy of the Russian language within the state, favoring ethnic Russians by implication.'

'Power in Russia’s authoritarian political system is concentrated in the hands of President Vladimir Putin. With loyalist security forces, a subservient judiciary, a controlled media environment, and a legislature consisting of a ruling party and pliable opposition factions, the Kremlin is able to manipulate elections and suppress genuine dissent. Rampant corruption facilitates shifting links among bureaucrats and organized crime groups.'

'First, they were countering Putin’s absurd insistence that the Ukrainian authorities – including Ukraine’s Jewish president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy – were Nazis and that Ukraine needed to be “de-Nazified.”

'Second, Ukrainians were drawing attention to those features of Putin’s Russia that indicated that it was fascist and thus in need of “de-Nazification.” Putin’s Russia was aggressive, anti-democratic and enamored of Putin himself. Unsurprisingly, his Russia’s resemblance to the regimes built by Mussolini and Hitler had not gone unnoticed by Russian and Western analysts in the last decade or so.'

'Seen in this light, Franco’s Spain, Pinochet’s Chile and the Greece of the colonels were really just your average authoritarian states. In contrast, Mussolini’s Italy and Xi Jinping’s China are clearly fascist, as were Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s USSR. Fascist states can thus be on the right and on the left.'

'Putin’s Russia also fits the bill. The political system is unquestionably authoritarian – some might say totalitarian.' ~ Alexander Motyl | Published: March 30, 2022 8.39am EDT

'A new sort of Russian regime has emerged since 2020. “It is more ideological, conservative, and aggressive,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a founder of Moscow-based political analysis firm R.Politik and nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center. The roots of this new system can be traced back to 2016, when Russian President Vladimir Putin began handing more domestic policy power to security services as he became more involved in foreign policy, including in Syria and Ukraine. By 2020, Russia’s security services were responsible for controlling the non-systemic opposition—the real opposition, as opposed to pro-Kremlin parties and organizations that play their assigned roles in Putin’s so-called managed democracy).'

'Okhotin said Russia’s latest repressive wave is partly a reaction to Putin’s eroding popularity since 2017 due to falling living standards and a deeply unpopular pension reform in 2018. According to a Statista poll, Putin’s approval rating stood at 85 percent in January 2017 compared to 67 percent in October 2021. Support for his United Russia party reached new lows this year, according to Russian Public Opinion Research Center, a state-owned pollster. Russians worry about rising food prices, poverty, and corruption—and silencing critics will not make those issues go away.' ~ By Madeline Roache | DECEMBER 25, 2021, 6:00 AM

'I believe Putin’s fascist Russia faces a serious risk of breakdown in the not-too-distant future. All that’s missing is a spark that will rile the people and elites and move them to take action. That could be an increase in fuel prices, the development that led to a citizen revolt in Kazakhstan earlier this year; a blatantly falsified election, such as the one that led to riots in autocratic Belarus in 2020; or thousands of body bags returning to Russia from the war in Ukraine.' ~ ALEXANDER MOTYL | MARCH 31, 2022 3:20 AM

Russian Dissention

'An umbrella group that pulls together opponents of the Kremlin under the Putin-Medvedev regime: far-left, far-right and everything in between. Founded in 2006, the widely diverse coalition includes notable opposition figures including chess champion Garry Kasparov. "We aim to restore civil control of power in Russia, a control that is guaranteed in the Russian Constitution that is so frequently and unambiguously violated today," the group said in a statement at the conclusion of its 2006 conference. "This aim requires a return to the principles of federalism and the separation of powers. It calls for the restoration of the social function of the state with regional self-administration and the independence of the media. The judicial system must protect every citizen equally, especially from the dangerous impulses of the representatives of power. It is our duty to free the country from outbreaks of prejudice, racism, and xenophobia and from the looting of our national riches by government officials." ~ By Bridget Johnson | Updated on November 04, 2019

'Last year, Navalny’s organization brought more than 100,000 protesters to the streets following his arrest and released an investigative report on YouTube that accused Putin of building a lavish palace with looted state funds; the video was viewed more than 120 million times. The government declared Navalny’s foundation a banned extremist group, and his aides were forced into exile to continue their work.'

'In late February, Yashin marked the seventh anniversary of the assassination of another opposition leader, Boris Nemtsov, by laying a bouquet of roses on a bridge just outside the Kremlin walls. Yashin’s flowers were placed in the spot where, on the night of February 27, 2015, he had stared in disbelief at the body of his friend and colleague Nemtsov, a vocal critic of Putin who was assassinated as he prepared to publish a report about Russia’s then-covert military presence in eastern Ukraine.' ~ Robert Mackey | March 9 2022, 11:48 a.m.

'Because of the new laws, Martynov chided the unilateral nature of media coverage, “We have a lot of pro-war propaganda. It’s quite stupid and aggressive.”

“I feel like all the situation has put us on the edge of civil war,” Martynov expressed, “basically because hate is rising in Russia. Propaganda feeds this hate, and we have more and more hate and distrust in Russia.'

'For their part, the Novaya Gazeta has attempted to use clever ways to skirt the publishing restrictions. Refusing to use the selective language the government has approved, they’ve utilized some cryptic artistry in cover designs. The most recent cover depicts ballerinas performing “Swan Lake” in front of a mushroom cloud with the tag, “This edition of Novaya is in compliance with the changed criminal code of Russia.”

'Martynov concluded it is a highly realistic probability that the Russian federation will be dissolved at the end of the conflict and no longer exist in it’s current capacity.' ~ Kevin Haggerty | March 13, 2022

'On that day, tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets across the country, called to action by Russia’s opposition leader Aleksei Navalny. The current wave of protests, which began in late March and resurged this week, is the largest Russia has seen since 2011–12. What makes them even more interesting is their nationwide distribution. Back in 2012, protests were generally confined to major Russian cities. This time, opposition leaders managed to engage 187 cities, towns and localities all over Russia.'

'The protesters’ success has not gone unnoticed by the authorities, as seen in their repeated attempts to close Navalny’s campaign regional offices, violent attacks on Navalny by pro-Kremlin gangsters (one such attempt left Navalny almost blind), and harsh crackdowns on the March 26 and June 12 protests.'

'Russia’s younger generation is increasingly integrated into Western culture. Many travel abroad, speak English, watch the same movies and programs, and listen to the same music as their European contemporaries. People who are steeped in Western popular culture sooner or later become attracted to Western political culture as well.' ~ by Maria Snegovaya | June 15, 2017

'Lutikova began collecting and publishing the aid and evacuation information the same day Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian dissenters have begun displaying a white-blue-white flag — Russia’s flag without the red stripe. Helping to Leave raised over $30,000 in its first two weeks, and expanded from three volunteers to over 300, most now living in Georgia, Poland, Romania, France, Austria, Israel and the U{?}'

'As Putin’s fortress encloses Russia and bleeds into Ukraine, blocking truth and spreading death, the defiance of the Russian and Belarusian expat dissenters shines through. “This is Putin’s war,” Muzychenko says, emphasizing that it is not the will of the Russian people she knows. Since February 24, 2022, Helping to Leave has aided in the evacuation of over 7,000 Ukrainian citizens. Helping to Leave is looking for Russian/Ukrainian speaking volunteers to aid in its efforts.'

Russian Constitution

'The state system of the Russian Federation is defined by the Constitution adopted by the popular vote on December 12, 1993.'

'Article 10 of the Constitution establishes that state power in the Russian Federation is exercised on the basis of a division into the legislative, executive and judicial branches. Legislative, executive and judicial authorities are independent.'

'The real situation differs significantly from that stated in the Constitution. Russia is in fact a presidential unitary state in which there is no real separation of powers. The parliament plays a decorative function, courts are not independent. There is tight control over the political sphere, access of opposition parties to elections and to the media is very limited.'

'Russia however has two houses of parliament making it a bicameral system (It is quite similar to the United States and the United Kingdom in this regard). It is composed of two chambers: The State Duma (The equivalent to the Verkhovna Rada for Ukraine). The Federation Council (An equivalent would be the Senate for the United States).'

'Similarly to Ukraine, Russia adopts a 50/50 split when it comes to allocating seats within the State Duma (A Mixed-Member Proportional System) 50% of seats are allocated via a proportional party list system with a 5% electoral threshold for representation. 50% of the seats are allocated via a First past the Post system for local constituencies.'

'Both Putin and United Russia are quite heavily popular among ethnic minority republics in the country. The party (along with Putin) have been criticized of being too lenient and open towards migrants from Central Asia.'

'The party has been essentially tied to Putin both in political terms, along with the eyes of ordinary Russians. The successes of Putin are the successes of United Russia and vice versa. However, this effect goes the same for the failures of the state and of United Russia, which has been evident in the past few years.' ~ by 'LOEWE418' | AUGUST 1, 2019

'The legislature is represented by the Federal Assembly of Russia. It has two chambers: the State Duma – the lower house, and the Federation Council – the upper house.'

'The President determines the basic domestic and foreign policy, is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, can veto legislative bills, resolves issues of citizenship of the Russian Federation, awards state decorations and grants pardons.'

'The head of government, the prime minister, is appointed by the president and confirmed by the State Duma. The government is housed in the so-called White House in Moscow.'

'The Constitutional Court is empowered to rule on whether or not laws or presidential decrees are constitutional. If it finds that a law is unconstitutional, the law becomes unenforceable and governmental agencies are barred from implementing it. The judges of the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court and the Higher Arbitration Court are appointed by the parliament’s upper house, the Federation Council.'

'The Russian constitution recognizes federal subjects as being equal subjects of the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation comprises of republics, cities of federal importance, krais, oblasts, an autonomous oblast, and autonomous okrugs. Each of the subjects has its own leader, a legislative body, and a constitutional court which is supported by the federal subjects’ constitution and legislation. The federal subjects are each represented by two delegates each in the Federal Assembly, but they differ on the degree of autonomy granted to each subject.' ~ Benjamin Elisha Sawe | April 30 2019

Separatism in Russia

'As noted in my previous post, many Russian nationalists see the their country in the future breaking into its constituent parts rather than enlarging at the expense of neighboring states.'

'A very different approach is evident in the map reposted on numerous websites.... It divides the country into many more constituent parts. Most of them correspond to the current federal subjects of the Russian Federation, but the exceptions are worth considering.'

'Much serious discussion among Russian economists, politicians, philosophers, culturologists, and writers revolves around the possibility of dividing the country. Economic, political, cultural and demographic factors are seen as driving Russian regions apart.'

'Authoritarian government is also seen as the main factor for the dissolution of the Russian Federation........Economic factors, such as the uneven development of central Russia and the more far flung regions, the unfair funneling of profits from Siberia to European Russia, the technological backwardness of certain regions, and the disintegration of transportation and communications infrastructure, are seen as crucial' ~ by Asya Pereltsvaig | Oct 25, 2014

'Russia has witnessed its fair share of homegrown movements seeking varying degrees of distance from the motherland. Chechnya, for instance, has sought full secession in the past, while some ethnically and linguistically distinct regions have simply sought greater autonomy, as was the case with the oil-rich republic of Tatarstan.'

'Republics, which were historically defined along ethno-cultural lines, have more rights than regions. Unlike regions, republics are entitled to proclaim their own state languages, which are then used alongside Russian in local and regional state institutions. Republics also have their own constitutions and legislatures, as well as greater latitude in the management of resources.'

'Sporadically throughout Russia's recent history, this disparity has served as inspiration for calls for greater autonomy.' ~ By Gabrielle Tetrault-Farber | Sep. 17, 2014

'In some ways, this is a problem of Moscow’s own making: it has created a status which at least in principle gives these peoples greater ability to defend themselves against the demands of the state and of those who want to develop the natural resources and now finds itself forced to move against groups it had earlier employed as advertisements of its solicitousness.'

'The Moscow ethnographer concludes his discussion by noting that there has been one development that few anticipated: in many cases, members of the younger generation of such people speak Russian rather than their national languages and do not engage in traditional economic activities. But they still identify as members of these groups, especially if they are on the list.'

'The Moscow journalist describes the way in which the Russian justice ministry has declared the Batani Foundation for the Development of the Numerically Small Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East a foreign agent even though it has not investigated the group and even though the group has received no foreign funding.'

'He suggests that this Moscow action reflects clashes between the interests of Russian companies seeking to develop the North and the interests of the peoples of the North. “The root of the contradiction is the issue of strengthening the rights of numerically small indigenous peoples” to engage in their traditional forms of economic activity.' ~ by Paul Goble | March 30, 2016

“Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers,” the forecast predicts.'

'Such action will make its neighbours anxious both in terms of national security and rapidly shifting economic policies.'

“We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia,” the report warns.'

“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”

'Poland is predicted to come out as the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade, Stratfor state.'

“In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories,” it warns.'

'This will lead to a powerful alliance with America, which will look to shore up relationships with a stabilising force.' ~ Debra Killalea | February 6, 2016 - 8:42AM

'But few seem to recognize that the current Kremlin leadership in its typical “hybrid” fashion is doing much the same thing, trumpeting how much Moscow is doing for the numerically smallest nations even as it moves to strip the non-Russian republics within the current borders of the Russian Federation of their last remaining powers.'

'Russians to view non-Russians as people who dress up for special national days and perhaps have their own cuisines but who are not to be thought of as self-standing nations who may have a broader agenda for themselves and their children.' ~ Paul A. Goble | 02/ 10/ 2019

'The looming decline in the number of Russian births, the increase in emigration, and the rise in the number of births among non-Russians and especially Muslim groups will spark “inter-ethnic conflicts” in the Russian Federation that will have “a more devastating effect” than those in Europe, according to Nataliya Shishkina.'

'Whatever the government thinks, Shishkina says, getting the Russian birthrate to European levels is insufficient. Not only is Russia far larger and adjoining countries like China with enormous populations, but the shifting balance of ethnic groups is certain to lead to ethnic clashes and conflicts.' ~ Paul A. Goble | 01/ 19/ 2015 - 18:36

“The post-Russian Federation republics will be interested in something entirely different – in international recognition” rather than in some mythical subsidies from an imperial center that no longer exists, Shtepa says. And because they will seek such recognition they will promote human rights and democratic procedures.'

'According to Shtepa, “hardly anyone wants to repeat ‘the asymmetric federation’ of the Soviet and post-Soviet model when small republics received more rights and authority than krays and oblasts with millions of residents. As a result, regions will be occupied with the establishment of their own republic-like self-administration” – and will focus on overcoming “imperial monopolies” far more than on changing borders with neighbors.'

'According to the fourth stereotypical notion, the disintegration of Russia will lead only to “the victory of local criminals and corruption” in each of the component parts, even though it has been precisely “in the imperial hypo-centralized system” of Putin’s Russia that crime and corruption “have achieved their apogee” in Moscow itself.' ~ Paul A. Goble | 09/ 23/ 2018

'In the 1990s, before Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia, it was facing obvious disintegration trends in national republics, as well as a number of regions ethnically dominated by Russians. Putin drove these processes deep under the surface, freezing some, using security services and turning the rebellious republics into addicts of the Moscow-administered oil and gas rent provided by a handful out of Russia’s 83 regions. Another factor that helps keep Russia united is expansionist policy coupled with imperialistic and chauvinistic ideology.'

'It is for this reason that Ukraine must now take every possible effort to encourage future disintegration of Russia and affect the arrangement of spin-offs that would be favourable for itself. At the same time, it should keep persuading Europeans and Americans that the benefits of such disintegration for the Western world are potentially much greater than possible risks caused by temporary destabilization of the huge territory that possesses nuclear weapons. After all, the world has already gone through a similar process once when the Soviet Union collapsed. As a result, nothing particularly scary happened, while the world only gained from it. Just think how much worse the situation would be today if Vladimir Putin had come to power back in the 1990 to run the USSR within its original borders rather than in 1999 to run the current Russia.'

'Disintegration of the Russian Federation could be triggered by just a few federal subjects that are potential hotbeds of separatism. They already have plenty of ethnic and/or economic reasons to separate from Moscow. If such sentiments escalated, Russia’s further existence as a single state would be impossible due to a number of reasons.' ~ Oleksandr Kramar | 9 July, 2014

'Russia’s Duma (parliament) put forth a bill on November 8th which provides for prison terms of up to 20 years for “spreading separatist propaganda.” The move comes on the heels of other assaults on free speech which have been damaging Russia’s already-precarious reputation as a new democracy'

'Seriously, though, Russia does have a separatism problem—most seriously in the predominantly-Muslim North Caucasus region.'

'Smaller, lesser known movements persist as well. President Boris Yeltsin had told Russia’s constituent republics and other jurisdictions (oblasts, okrugs, krais, etc.) to “take as much autonomy as you can stand.” But Putin has reversed that course'

'Putin needs to realize that democracy means having the right to express whatever your views are on how you should be governed, including separatist sentiment. And he will learn the hard way that suppressing national aspirations only stokes the fires. But tyrants never learn.' ~ Posted by Chris Roth | Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Separatism links on Russia by Lansing Institute:

'Imaginary maps of the collapse of the Russian Empire.'

'Russia (2050): After the Second Russian War'

Russian Dissidents Suffer Collateral Damage from Putin's War

'Some Russian citizens have already begun to leave their country, citing concerns of increasing Russian government crackdowns and worsening economic conditions from international sanctions.'

'One Russian woman, who fled to Georgia, said she had experienced heckling, including by a restaurant owner who recognized her Russian accent.'

“At the start, I was embarrassed but also wanted to share that I was against the war. But I understand he had anger,” the woman told Business Insider. “I would be angry too.”

'Last week, Axios reported that since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has become the most sanctioned country in the world, surpassing Iran.' ~ RYAN MORGAN | MARCH 17, 2022

'Coke to McDonald’s to Starbucks have been closing up shop in Russia. But with many of the tech company restrictions, in particular, it’s Russian dissidents, not oligarchs, who are getting hurt.'

'The restrictions from Visa and Mastercard only apply to international transactions, leaving those in Russia comparatively untouched but cutting off dissidents and journalists who fled from their Russian assets. Many of those fleeing the Putin regime could end up living on the streets simply because they were brave enough to stand up to injustice and had to leave their homes.'

'We often hear how large tech firms are more like countries than companies. While that may be true when it comes to the scope of their influence, it rarely represents the reality of how they wield that influence. Rather than making sober, thoughtful, decisions, they respond rashly in the hope of garnering good PR.' ~ ALBERT FOX CAHNIDEAS | APR 11, 2022 8:00 AM

'Israel’s Law of Return gives the right of citizenship to anyone with at least one Jewish grandparent, a criterion that tens of thousands in both Russia and Ukraine meet.'

'Since Russian troops invaded on February 24, nearly 24,000 Ukrainians have fled to Israel, some but not all taking advantage of the law, according to immigration ministry figures. They have been joined by around 10,000 Russians, an Israeli immigration official told AFP.'

'When the invasion started on the morning of February 24, “it was proof that I needed to leave as quickly as possible,” Romanova said. “The war in Ukraine is incompatible with my way of thinking and my moral values. It makes me sick,” she said, fighting back the tears.'

'The wave of immigration from Ukraine and Russia over the past seven weeks is the largest Israel has seen since the early 1990s when the collapse of the Soviet Union prompted hundreds of thousands to seek a new life on the shores of the Mediterranean.'

“I lost my country. It was stolen from me. It was taken by Putin and those KGB thugs,” she said wistfully.' ~ By DELPHINE MATTHIEUSSENT | 17 April 2022, 7:56 am

'But some of the moves by Western tech companies to limit tools or services in Russia are also hurting the ability of Russian dissidents to inform the public about Russia’s highly censored war.'

“Like my team. We're creating content on social media against this war and trying to spread it on the internet,” he said. But because Visa and Mastercard are suspending their activities in the country, “We cannot donate money to Russian journalists and human rights activists from out of Russia…Those people who have to flee persecution in Russia, flee to other countries, they cannot use their bank credit card. It turns out to be like a useless piece of plastic.” ~ BY PATRICK TUCKER | MARCH 15, 2022

Accuracy Concerning Russia and the West

'The U.S.-Russia Business Council’s driving purpose for more than thirty years has been to advance bilateral trade and investment in support of the development of best business practices in Russia, specifically the rule of law, transparency and accountability. The Council provides information, analysis and programs. The Council has worked for decades in a manner consistent with the United States' historic goal since the end of the Cold War to integrate Russia's economy into the global economy.'

'In reality, there has been no NATO proposal to invade or break up Russia. Instead there was just a tweet by a member of the Latvian parliament, Aleksandrs Kiršteins, who belongs to a party that is described as right-wing and nationalist, but clearly in the country’s minority.'

'And NATO has made it clear in the past that while it condemns Russia’s aggressive actions toward Ukraine beginning in 2014, it still seeks to maintain dialogue and stability with Russia.'

“The Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia,” an official statement from the NATO summit in Warsaw in 2016 reads.'

'Even though Kiršteins’ tweet suggests an unrealistic division of Russia, even he does not propose that any division of Russia should be carried out by military action of NATO or any outside force.' ~ By Polygraph | 2018-08-01, 11:47

'There is a distinct propaganda effort in the Russian proxy press, pushing for a ‘break up’ of the United States, and in that since, attempting to foment violence, and a grievances between groups of Americans. This would be a dream outcome for the FSB.'

'Again, this is nothing new; it happened during the riots of the sixties, as Americans fought communist-backed communist forces in Vietnam.'

'I don’t see a civil war happening in the US. But I do think that this country can, and probably will, break-up into different zones so to speak. In some regions, law and order will be maintained, by force is needed, while in others something new will appear'

'I don’t believe Russia is involved directly in the continuation of the riots; I think China, and the Deep State are doing a great job of that all by themselves. The Deep State and China are funding it, stoking it, fomenting it, in the hopes of bringing down Trump in November.'

'That is why it is absurd to believe the Kremlin is backing another Trump term.' ~ by L Todd Wood | August 30, 2020

'There are at least five different categories of foreign audiences that espouse a pro-Russian geopolitical identity, all united by an opposition to liberalism. In addition to pro-Russian far right parties and networks, which have attracted most of the attention of scholars and journalists, there are also far left, Orthodox Christian, Russophone, and various ethnoreligious and separatist groups that favor a pro-Russian geopolitical identity. During international crises that involve Russia, such as Russia’s annexation of Crimea or its intervention to support the Assad regime in Syria, these pro-Russian groups with seemingly irreconcilable views on domestic politics, may mobilize to pressure their governments to adopt a more pro-Russian foreign policy position than would be expected otherwise.'

'Russia has provided some support, some of it very symbolic, to numerous separatist groups around the world ranging from Basque, Baloch, Catalan, and Scottish separatists in Europe and Asia, to Californian, Hawaiian, and Texan separatists in the United States.... Russian-Iranian partnership that precedes and goes beyond the Syrian war.'

'Despite these glaring contradictions, increasing resentment against U.S. foreign policy, neoliberal market economics, globalization, and/or liberal democracy, as well as opposition to more specific policies identified with Western liberalism such as same-sex marriage legislation, provide opportunities and justifications for otherwise seemingly irreconcilable groups to adopt pro-Russian geopolitical preferences.' ~ ŞENER AKTÜRK | NOVEMBER 11, 2019

'Ashurkov added that Putin and his regime already deserve what punishment the West can levy for his attempts to disrupt the world order through money, cyber attacks, invasions, and political assassinations.'

“I would like to tell you that there is a silver bullet; that there is a list of measures the West could undertake and Russia would stop its trend toward oppression internally and aggression externally,” he said, “but there is no such silver bullet.”

“Potentially, of course, I believe that Russia is part of Europe. And it would be only, maybe, a few years before Russia resumes its path toward Europe. Not necessarily the European institutions, as in European Union and NATO, but European values of representative political system, rule of law, free mass media. And if Russia embarks on this path, then I don’t think NATO is a threat, and we can even entertain the possibility of Russia joining NATO.” ~ BY KEVIN BARON | FEBRUARY 23, 2022

Budapest Memorandum

'Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a clear breach of an agreement that was signed in the mid-1990s.'

'This happened when Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan signed The Budapest Memorandum, which brought Ukraine into the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.'

'Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.'

'Not only did this violate the terms of the Budapest Memorandum, but it also broke international law, the 1991 Belavezha Accords (which set up the Commonwealth of Independent States), the 1975 Helsinki Accords, and the 1997 Treaty on friendship, cooperation and partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.' ~ Charisa Bossinakis | Last updated 22:39, 03 March 2022 GMT

'The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country.'

'The Kremlin has violated those commitments. Using soldiers in Russian combat fatigues without identifying insignia, whom Mr. Putin later admitted were Russian, Moscow seized Crimea'

'Washington cannot undo Russia’s violations. It can and should, however, do more to fulfill its obligations under the Budapest memorandum by doing more to bolster Ukraine and penalize Russia until Moscow alters its policy. Such U.S. action could also change the Ukrainian narrative in the hypothetical conversation with a North Korean diplomat to “the Russians violated the memorandum, but the Americans backed us to the fullest and made Moscow pay.” That would help restore credibility to security assurances as an element in the toolkit of America’s non-proliferation diplomacy.'

'These are actions that the United States owes Ukraine for giving up the nuclear arms on its territory. In 1994, Washington wrote Kyiv a check for U.S. support in the Budapest memorandum—albeit hoping that it would never be cashed. Unfortunately, it has.' ~ Steven Pifer | Thursday, December 4, 2014

'Additionally, the West threatened Ukraine with isolation since the missiles were supposedly aimed at the United States. Therefore, "the only possible decision" was to give up the weapons, according to Kravchuk.'

'The Ukrainian missiles were either transported to Russia or destroyed. As compensation, the regime in Kyiv received financial assistance from the United States, cheap energy supplies from Russia, and security guarantees that were enshrined in the Budapest Memorandum.'

'According to a former US diplomat who participated in the talks, Steven Pifer, it was understood that if there was a violation, there would be a response incumbent on the US and the UK. And while that response was not explicitly defined, Pifer notes that: “there is an obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance”.

'US and UK’s commitments under the Budapest Memorandum, the impression that emerges is very much that Ukraine was left on its own to fight an unlawful, nuclear-capable aggressor.'

'The image of Ukraine being invaded by Russia despite its security assurances and being left largely to fend for itself in this conflict may trigger a resurgant interest in nuclear weapons. Some evidence of this has already begun to emerge, for instance in Japan, where the former prime minister Shinzo Abe argued that “Japan should break a longstanding taboo and hold an active debate on nuclear weapons – including a possible ‘nuclear-sharing’ programme.” ~ Aldo Zammit Borda | Published: March 2, 2022 8.02am EST

Minsk Protocols

'In 2014, after fighting in Donbas, Ukraine, a ceasefire was implemented signed by Russia, Ukraine and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).'

'The agreement, known as the Minsk Protocol, set out a 12 point plan to prevent any further fighting between the two nations.' ~ Danni Scott | 2:53 ET, Feb 24 2022 Updated: 4:45 ET, Mar 8 2022

'Five months later, after Ukraine lost territory to pro-Russia separatists, Minsk II was signed. Representatives of Russia and Ukraine, mediated by France and Germany, signed a 13-point agreement in February 2015. The second agreement also quickly broke down, with the OSCE reporting around 200 weekly violations in 2016-2020 and more than 1,000 since 2021, according to Novaya Gazeta.'

'The major disagreements over Minsk II stem from differing interpretations of Russia’s role in the conflict and how the points should be implemented.'

'Mainstream Russian and Ukrainian media tend to reiterate arguments made by their countries’ officials.' ~ Feb. 11, 2022

'In his analysis, the Minsk plan for the political reintegration of Donbas was put together hastily and contains contradictory points, which has led to the two sides arguing for interpretations that are advantageous to them.'

'Indeed, other analysts suggest that if Kyiv was pressured into implementing Russia’s version of Minsk, there could be a severe backlash from ordinary Ukrainians that could destabilise the country internally.'

'Ukraine’s interpretation of the agreement envisions alterations to some of the prickliest political elements, but in doing so, it negates what Russia has shown it wants from Minsk – the ability to continue to control the territories and through them have a say in Ukraine’s national affairs on an ongoing basis.'

'Allan urged the West to decide: “Is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?” But, Allan said, he worries that “there are some Western policymakers who don’t want to face up to the stark reality.”

'But Russia started a war in 2014 because it wants to control Ukraine on a permanent and everyday basis. It continues to fuel the war because it is unable to accept that Ukraine does not want to be controlled by Russia.' ~ Isobel Koshiw | 4 February 2022, 4.12pm

'The EU stressed that Russia’s decision to involve residents of the non-government-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine in its elections runs counter to the spirit and objectives of the Minsk agreements.' ~ Bohdan Marusyak | September 21, 2021

Putin's Ukraine War Folly

'For the moment, this world does not live according to his rules, but now there will be an operation to enforce life according to these rules without rules. As Putin has put it, the “Soviet totalitarian regime” incorrectly divided the territory of the empire, limiting the rights of ethnic Russians, and now the time has come to redistribute the territory of the empire — already a former empire — anew.'

'What is taking place resembles the Crimean campaign. But this is worse than Crimea, because this time the affair will not be resolved “without a shot being fired.” Because Russian boys will place their lives in danger not for the Motherland, not to repel the attack of an aggressor, but for the arrogance of a political regime that has turned Russia into a world pariah, an international spoiler, a global nightmare.' ~ By Andrei Kolesnikov | Updated: Feb. 25, 2022

'Putin has no legitimate justification for this war: Ukraine poses no threat to the Russian Federation. But he knows that the example set by Ukrainians’ pursuit of democracy stands in stark contrast to his own authoritarian grip on power. His stated aims are to “de-Nazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine—a country that has built a national identity apart from and in spite of its Soviet past; a country with a popularly elected Jewish president whose grandfather fought against the Nazis; a country that has had to stave off military attacks from Kremlin-backed separatists for eight years.' ~ Yana Gorokhovskaia, Mike Smeltzer, and Annie Boyajian contributed to this perspective.

'Putin claims that there’s not a Ukrainian history separate from Russian. But that’s not true. Among the speakers of Ukrainian and in the lands now comprising Ukraine, there were many different experiences. They belonged at times to different states and realms. But there was interaction between Ukrainian speakers throughout much of this history, and they developed a common identity, especially after the mid-19th century.'

'Putin claims that the German Empire and Austrian-Hungarian Empire essentially created a modern Ukraine. Is that true?......... That’s basically a bunch of nonsense. Putin is basing that on the fact that Ukrainian leaders, at a particular moment, sought the support of the Central Powers to save their independence movement from the Bolsheviks. But at that point, there had been already a three-generation-long movement for Ukrainian autonomy or independence. So, this claim is nonsense.'

'Recent scholars have argued that the Soviets created to some extent their own nationalities problem by sponsoring these different nationalities, which later split from the Soviet Union. And Putin is taking that point—he or somebody in his circle is aware of the scholarship—to an extreme, saying there was no Ukraine until the Bolsheviks created it by sponsoring Ukrainian culture. As we’ve seen, that’s a false claim.'

'This is a move that’s irrational on every level, that might even lead to Putin’s being overthrown by, for example, a military coup. In a sense, it’s his emotional attachment to these kinds of historical claims and also a sense that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a humiliation that must be avenged.' ~ Sandra Knispel | March 3, 2022

“At the start of the conflict, Russia committed over 120 battalion tactical groups, approximately 65 per cent of its entire ground combat strength. It is likely that more than a quarter of these units have now been rendered combat ineffective. Some of Russia’s most elite units, including the VDV Airborne Forces, have suffered the highest levels of attrition. It will probably take years for Russia to reconstitute these forces.”

'The Russian military continues to bleed men and materiel at an unsustainable rate. Over the last weekend alone, the Russian military reportedly lost some 800 men killed (and two or three times that number wounded); 62 tanks; 101 armored personnel carriers; 129 vehicles; 24 artillery pieces; eight anti-aircraft batteries; seven fixed-wing aircraft; and 40 unmanned aerial systems of all sizes. If the report is accurate, the Kremlin cannot keep this up.' ~ By Stavros Atlamazoglou | circa 5/2/2022

'Victory Day is an annual display of Russia’s military prowess that glorifies the Soviet defeat of its former collaborator, Nazi Germany. Putin will manipulate the symbolism and emotion of the event to portray Ukraine and the West as the new Nazi threat to Russia.'

'With casualties estimated at over 20,000 dead Russian soldiers and the destruction of thousands of pieces of military hardware, mobilization is necessary to maintain a high-intensity invasion. But such a move in a rapidly contracting economy is unlikely to bring any immediate results. Russia’s reservists are poorly trained and not motivated to fight in a hostile state, while increasing news of military losses in Ukraine will convince many to avoid military service.'

'Facing the loss of Ukraine, Putin will also begin to lose at home. Amid growing reports of internal disputes between military, internal security, and intelligence services, as well as arrests, suicides, and disappearances of oligarchs and security personnel, Russia’s elite look more conflicted than at any time since the Soviet collapse.' ~ by Janusz Bugajski | May 07, 2022 07:00 AM