ELECTORAL COLLEGE METHODS COMPARED: v1
|
State
|
Current All-Or-Nothing Method Electoral Votes
|
Anchor Value for National Popular Vote's Effective Electoral Allocation*
|
Bicameral Electoral College II Allocation (Electoral House & Senate Method)
|
AL
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
AK
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
AZ
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
AR
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
CA
|
55
|
65.55
|
37.97
|
CO
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
CT
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
DE
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
FL
|
27
|
30.92
|
20.70
|
GA
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
HI
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
ID
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
IL
|
21
|
23.50
|
17.00
|
IN
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
IA
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
KS
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
KY
|
8
|
7.42
|
8.98
|
LA
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
ME
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
MD
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
MA
|
12
|
12.37
|
11.44
|
MI
|
17
|
18.55
|
14.53
|
MN
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
MS
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
MO
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
MT
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
NE
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
NV
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
NH
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
NJ
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
NM
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
NY
|
31
|
35.87
|
23.17
|
NC
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
ND
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
OH
|
20
|
22.26
|
16.38
|
OK
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
OR
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
PA
|
21
|
23.50
|
17.00
|
RI
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
SC
|
8
|
7.42
|
8.98
|
SD
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
TN
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
TX
|
34
|
39.58
|
25.02
|
UT
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
VT
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
VA
|
13
|
13.60
|
12.06
|
WA
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
WV
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
WI
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
WY
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
|
|
|
|
DC
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
*Effective
electors are anchor value approximations based on the
relative number of seats in the congressional house per state. The
real world National Popular Vote
elector results should deviate from those anchor values within
limit depending on actual state populations and voter turnout per election.
However, any greater deviations are possible for states with relatively small populations like Wyoming and as well D.C.
either by turnout or via Amendment XXIII respectively.
Note too that the National
Popular Vote
takes effect as soon as enough states enter the pact and can assign a
270 electoral vote majority to the "candidate who receives the most
popular votes"
where those states each grant all of their electors to that
candidate.
CONSTANTS & FORMULAE USED
Congressional House Representatives = 435, Senators = 100 Electoral College Electors = 538 (3 for D.C.)
Bicameral II House Denominator = 436 (added one for D.C.) Bicam II Senate Denominator = 51 (added one for D.C.)
Bicam II National 'House' or 'Senate' Electors: 538/2 = 269
Current Electors Per State: (state's # US house reps) + (state's # US senators)
National Popular Vote's Effective Range Elector Allocation: (state's # US house reps / 435) X 538
Bicameral Electoral College II Elector Allocation: (state's # US house reps / 436) X 269 + (269/51)
Note that electors are rounded to two decimal points in the table for mere simplicity. They will be carried out
to significant digits in execution.
|
|
As you can see, the popular vote method is backward since it gives
additional electors to
states who already have sizeable advantages while it takes away votes
from small
states who already have little voice in the electoral college. Bicameral
Electoral College II
does the opposite. It gives more votes to small states by allocating a
base number of equal votes
to all states before allocating the other half of the votes by
population. Our current all-or-nothing electoral college method is
somewhere in between
while awarding results for most states totally to only one candidate.
Our first proposal,
Bicam I, allocates electoral vote strength the same as the current
method but halves each state's electors between
the state legislature and the state's popular vote and rounds off
proportional suffrage for candidates in each state. Bicameral Electoral
College I can be used in lieu of or until all states implement
Bicameral Electoral College II. Remember in Bicam II that fractional
allocations and partial electoral vote results are
combined and sorted amongst the states to eventually reach a number of
whole electoral votes for all candidates after the scrap mixed-share
electors
are processed separately.
While the larger states do lose noticeable electoral votes in the Bicameral II method, they
are still a few magnitudes above the smaller states and reserve influence in that
regard. Notice too that the spreads between the larger states are narrowed...
SOME LARGE RIVAL STATE SPREADS COMPARED
|
States
|
Current All-Or-Nothing Method Electoral Votes
|
Anchor Value for National Popular Vote's Effective Electoral Allocation*
|
Bicameral Electoral College II Allocation (Electoral House & Senate Method)
|
CA
|
55
|
65.55
|
37.97
|
NY
|
31
|
35.87
|
23.17
|
SPREAD:
|
24
|
29.68
|
14.80
|
CA/NY:
|
1.77
|
1.83
|
1.64
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CA
|
55
|
65.55
|
37.97
|
FL
|
27
|
30.92
|
20.70
|
SPREAD:
|
28
|
34.63
|
17.27
|
CA/FL:
|
2.04
|
2.12
|
1.83
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NY
|
31
|
35.87
|
23.17
|
FL
|
27
|
30.92
|
20.70
|
SPREAD:
|
4
|
4.95
|
2.47
|
NY/FL:
|
1.15
|
1.16
|
1.12
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TX
|
34
|
39.58
|
25.02
|
PA
|
21
|
23.50
|
17.00
|
SPREAD:
|
13
|
16.08
|
8.02
|
TX/PA:
|
1.62
|
1.68
|
1.47
|
Keep in mind the partial suffrage in each state of the proposed
bicameral electoral college and how that will effect
the incentive of the duelling candidates as opposed to all-or-nothing
allocation. Now solely considering elector strengths, we note in the
above table that while the spreads between the big states are narrowed
with still comfortable leads for the bigger states, the comparative
large state
magnitudes remain near stable throughout in most cases or exhibit a
substantial retention. This is like the best of both worlds -- big
states are more competitive with bigger states by electoral spreads
while bigger states can retain most of their relative advantages. So
despite California
losing a substantial number of electoral votes and having its lead over
other rival
big states narrowed (Bicams II & III), California still yields a lot
of influence in the new system compared with all states.
For compensation, California interests can opt to persuade the other
states' legislators
since all state legislatures will determine almost half of the national
electoral college (w/ DC). California may also consider
influencing the popular presidential vote in other states or the state
legislative races themselves in various states. Since the smaller states
will have higher elector to population ratios, would these approaches
save on campaign dollars to achieve the desired electors? Or whatever
dollars spent, do campaigns get more for their money within this system
in pursuit of a better nation?
The Bicam II electoral proportions for California and the other states are nearly the same as to what they
have agreed to in the Congress. Since such proportions work well for the
states in choosing our national legislation, why would they decide not to implement them in
choosing presidents?........
Anchor for last table.
AUGHTIES TABLE FOR BICAMERAL ELECTORAL COLLEGE III
ELECTORAL COLLEGE METHODS COMPARED: v2
|
State
|
Current All-Or-Nothing Method Electoral Votes
|
Anchor Value for National Popular Vote's Effective Electoral Allocation*
|
Bicameral Electoral College III Allocation (Electoral House & Senate Method)
|
Bicam III Electoral Split (Half of State's Electors Allocated to Popular/Legislative Vote)
|
AL
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
4.79
|
AK
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
AZ
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
5.10
|
AR
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
3.87
|
CA
|
55
|
65.55
|
37.97
|
18.98
|
CO
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
4.79
|
CT
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
4.18
|
DE
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
FL
|
27
|
30.92
|
20.70
|
10.35
|
GA
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
6.65
|
HI
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
3.25
|
ID
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
3.25
|
IL
|
21
|
23.50
|
17.00
|
8.50
|
IN
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
5.41
|
IA
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
4.18
|
KS
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
3.87
|
KY
|
8
|
7.42
|
8.98
|
4.49
|
LA
|
9
|
8.66
|
9.59
|
4.79
|
ME
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
3.25
|
MD
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
5.10
|
MA
|
12
|
12.37
|
11.44
|
5.72
|
MI
|
17
|
18.55
|
14.53
|
7.26
|
MN
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
5.10
|
MS
|
6
|
4.95
|
7.74
|
3.87
|
MO
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
5.41
|
MT
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
NE
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
3.56
|
NV
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
3.56
|
NH
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
3.25
|
NJ
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
6.65
|
NM
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
3.56
|
NY
|
31
|
35.87
|
23.17
|
11.58
|
NC
|
15
|
16.08
|
13.30
|
6.65
|
ND
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
OH
|
20
|
22.26
|
16.38
|
8.19
|
OK
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
4.18
|
OR
|
7
|
6.18
|
8.36
|
4.18
|
PA
|
21
|
23.50
|
17.00
|
8.50
|
RI
|
4
|
2.47
|
6.51
|
3.25
|
SC
|
8
|
7.42
|
8.98
|
4.49
|
SD
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
TN
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
5.41
|
TX
|
34
|
39.58
|
25.02
|
12.51
|
UT
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
3.56
|
VT
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
VA
|
13
|
13.60
|
12.06
|
6.03
|
WA
|
11
|
11.13
|
10.83
|
5.41
|
WV
|
5
|
3.71
|
7.13
|
3.56
|
WI
|
10
|
9.89
|
10.21
|
5.10
|
WY
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
|
|
|
|
|
DC
|
3
|
1.24
|
5.89
|
2.94
|
*Effective
electors are anchor value approximations based on the
relative number of seats in the congressional house per state. The
real world National Popular Vote
elector results should deviate from those anchor values within
limit depending on actual state populations and voter turnout per election.
However, any greater deviations are possible for states with relatively small populations like Wyoming and as well D.C.
either by turnout or via Amendment XXIII respectively.
Note too that the National
Popular Vote
takes effect as soon as enough states enter the pact and can assign a
270 electoral vote majority to the "candidate who receives the most
popular votes"
where those states each grant all of their electors to that
candidate.
CONSTANTS & FORMULAE USED
Congressional House Representatives = 435, Senators = 100 Electoral College Electors = 538 (3 for D.C.)
Bicameral III House Denominator = 436 (added one for D.C.) Bicam III Senate Denominator = 51 (added one for D.C.)
Bicam III National 'House' or 'Senate' Electors: 538/2 = 269
Current Electors Per State: (state's # US house reps) + (state's # US senators)
National Popular Vote's Effective Range Elector Allocation: (state's # US house reps / 435) X 538
Bicameral Electoral College III Elector Allocation: (state's # US house reps / 436) X 269 + (269/51)
Bicam III State Legislative & Popular Vote Split: (state's # Bicam III State Electors) / 2
Note that electors are rounded to two decimal points in the table for mere simplicity. They will be carried out
to significant digits in execution.
|
|
|